Market Outlook for 20 March

The market cracked heavily in late trades on the back of aggressive selling pressure in banking and select index heavyweights like Reliance Industries and ITC.

Banking shares in particular were a cropper, as they led the rally in morning deals, and were also the chief draggers at the end of the day.

The Sensex rallied past the weekly R-2 (29,940) to give a fresh buy signal, but by ending below its weekly closing has neutralised the impact.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the BSE index may now drop towards 28,170-odd levels, which is the weekly S-1 (support).

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the Sensex on Friday, is likely to seek support around 28,255-28,185-28,120, while on the upside may face resistance around 28,685-28,755-28,820.

The NSE Nifty has ended below the 50-DMA (Daily Moving Average) for the second time in the last five trading sessions.

The Nifty has some crucial support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band on the daily charts at 8,560-odd level, below the doors for a steeper fall towards the 200-DMA at 8,150-odd level may open.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is negative. The ADX (Average Directional Index) has also given a negative divergence. The  14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in neutral mode, while the Stochastic Slow is marginally positive.

On Friday, the NSE Nifty may seek support around 8,570-8,545-8,530, while face resistance around 8,700-8,720-8,740.

The Bank Nifty may seek support around 18,570-18,495-18,420, while on the other hand face resistance around 19,055-19,130-19,205.

Markets on slippery ground ahead of US FOMC meet

The Indian markets are trading on a soft note ahead of the outcome from today's FOMC meet. The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce its future direction on interest rates.

Analysts around the world are expected the US Fed to drop the word 'Patience' from its statement on interest rates.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) benchmark index, the Sensex, has so far dropped to a low of 28,600, and is now down 86 points at 28,650.

Mortgage lender, HDFC is the major dragger, down 1.3 per cent at Rs. 1,322. The stock alone has accounted for a loss of 32 points on the BSE index.

NTPC is the biggest per centage loser, down 2.2 per cent at Rs. 154. ONGC has shed 1.7 per cent at Rs. 309.

Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors and BHEL have declined 1.3 per cent each to Rs. 919, Rs. 564 and Rs. 261, respectively.

On the other hand, Sesa Sterlite is the major gainer in the Sensex-30 stocks. It has rallied nearly 3 per cent to Rs. 198 on reports that the Environment ministry has revoked its ban on mining in Goa.

SBI, Sun Pharma and Hero MotoCorp are the other notable gainers. Tata Motors is trading on a dull note on the BSE in early morning deals, on the back of lower-than-expected global wholesales data.

Among other stocks, Cadila Healthcare surged 4 per cent to touch a high of Rs. 1,745 in early deals on back of new drug launch for treatment of Hepatitis C in India by the Zydus group.

Madhucon Projects has hit the 5 per cent upper circuit at Rs. 58.05 on winning fresh order worth Rs. 397 crore from National Highway Authority of India (NHAI).

VHCL is locked at the 10 per cent upper circuit at Rs. 6.67 after the company fixed the record date for the proposed bonus issue. The company to the BSE, VHCL has fixed 27 March, as the record date for 3:1 bonus issue, three free shares for every shareholder holding a share as per the record date.

Wockhardt is trading in the negative territory after the patent office refused a patent for an oral salt form of diacerein, used to treat osteoarthritis, invented by the company. The stock slipped over 3.5 per cent to a low of Rs. 1,850.

Aegis Logistics is trading at new life-time high, up 12.5 per cent at Rs. 608 on the back of renewed buying interest at the counter.

Sensex, Nifty rally in late trade

The Indian market yesterday ended with a flourish on account of aggressive all-round buying in the last 40-odd minutes of trade.

The Sensex rallied to hit a fresh day's high at 28,784 at the fag end of the day and finally ended with a gain of 299 points at 28,736.

The NSE Nifty touched a high of 8,743 and a low of 8,631 before settling with a solid 90-point gain at 8,723.

Among sectors, the Pharma index surged nearly 2 per cent at 12,717. The Bank Nifty, Auto, Energy, FMCG, Infrastructure and Metal indices also finished with gains of over a per cent each.

Pharma stocks were the major gainers on reports of that National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) has fixed/ revised the prices for 509 formulation packs. Cadila Healthcare zoomed over 7 per cent to Rs. 1,702, and Piramal Enterprises surged 6.3 per cent to Rs. 888.

IPCA Labs soared over 5 per cent to Rs. 771. Dr.Reddy's rallied 3.5 per cent to Rs. 3,431. Strides Arcolab and Biocon advanced around 2.5 per cent each. Apollo Hospitals, Cipla, Aurobindo Pharma, Divis Labs, Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy and Wockhardt were up -2 per cent each.

Banking shares were the major movers in the late flurry. IndusInd Bank zoomed 3.5 per cent to Rs. 907 and Axis Bank jumped 2.5 per cent to Rs. 583. Federal Bank, Yes Bank, Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank and Bank of India were up 1-3 per cent each.

Among other frontline stocks - Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors and HDFC advanced around 2.5 per cent each to Rs. 1,722, Rs. 570 and Rs. 1,336, respectively.

Heavyweights Reliance Industries and ITC added 1.5 per cent each to Rs. 856 and Rs. 341, respectively.

Jindal Steel & Power was the major loser. The stock tumbled over 8 per cent to Rs. 175 on news reports that the government is expected to reject two bids from the company for its Gare Palma and Tara coal fields.

HCL Technologies and Infosys declined a per cent each to Rs. 2,037 and Rs. 2,245, respectively.

Silver Precariously Poised

The NYMEX Silver March futures are trading with a loss of 1.3 per cent around $ 16.845 as of 1630 hrs. IST.

The NYMEX Silver futures have been taking support around the 50-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at $ 16.7917 for the last three trading sessions.

Today so far, once more, the white metal contract has touched a low of $ 16.79.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the S-3 (support) for Silver is at $ 16.785, which has been held so far in trades.

In case, Silver March contract breaks below the $ 16.785, the next significant support is around $ 16.74, below which the white metal can slide towards the weekly S-1 (support) at $ 16.28-odd levels.

Hence, the Silver futures seem to be precariously poised in trade today. The NYMEX contract needs to sustain above $ 16.894, for fresh gains to emerge.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, NYMEX Silver March futures are likely to seek support around $ 16.894-16.840-16.785, while face resistance around $ 17.246-17.30-17.355.

The weekly Fibonacci charts indicates support for Silver around $ 16.28-16.138-15.993, while face resistance around $ 17.20-17.343-17.487.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are in favour of the bears. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), however, is in neutral mode.

Meanwhile, the MCX Silver futures too have declined over a per cent (Rs. 448) at Rs. 37,350.

MCX Gold Support Seen At Rs. 26,700

After declining almost 4 per cent last week, the MCX Gold futures have started the week on a cautious note with a gain of 0.5 per cent on Monday.

There are two positive developments for the MCX Gold futures - one each on the daily and the weekly charts.

As per the daily charts, the MCX Gold April futures have bounced back after testing support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at Rs. 26,765-odd levels.

Hence, one can expect Gold futures to seek support around Rs. 26,700-odd level as per the daily charts.

Secondly, Gold futures seem to be finding support around the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at Rs. 26,850-odd levels.

Given the duo-support factor, Gold prices may not witness a steep fall in the recent days.

As per the daily charts, Gold futures can test the 50-DMA on the upside at Rs. 27,100-odd level, above which it may or target the 50-WMA at Rs. 27,550-odd level.

As per the daily Fibonacci charts, the MCX Gold April futures are expected to seek support around Rs. 26,884-26,865-26,845, while face resistance around Rs. 27,005-27,023-27,042 today.

The weekly Fibonacci charts, indicates support for Gold futures around Rs. 26,355-26,220-26,080, and resistance around Rs. 27,245-27,385-27,525.

The MCX Gold futures so far has given a mixed signal, by registering the day's high at the opening bell at Rs. 26,963 (open and high are same) - which is a bearish indicator. On the other hand, Gold has taken support around the daily S-2 (support) at Rs. 26,865 (day's low so far Rs. 26,871).

One needs to keep a close eye on the daily S-2 and S-3, in case, Gold breaks below daily S-3, the contract may witness a steeper fall towards Rs. 26,700-odd levels.

Happy Trading till then.

NYMEX Gold Needs To Break Above $ 1,240

The NYMEX Gold April futures have shed 4.6 per cent in the last two weeks, and given a clear sell signal on the daily charts.

As per the daily charts, NYMEX Gold futures have broken below the lower-end of the Bollinger Band which is at $ 1,240.

Going ahead, the near term bias is likely to favour the bears as long as Gold trades below $ 1,240 per ounce.

In other words, the NYMEX Gold contract needs to bounce back above the lower-end of the Bollinger Band at $ 1,240 for fresh gains to emerge.

On the positive front, Gold futures for the last three trading sessions have managed to find support around the 50-DMA at $ 1,232.

Today in the day, so far, Gold April futures have touched a low of $ 1,234.50, and are now trading with a gain of 0.3 per cent at $ 1,238.

In case, Gold futures manage to break above $ 1,240, the contract may spurt towards the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) at $ 1,247.

The medium-term trend is negative as Gold futures have retreated after testing resistance around the higher-end of the weekly Bollinger Band at $ 1,291-odd level. The weekly charts indicate a correction towards $ 1,213-odd levels.

As per the weekly Fibonacci charts, the NYMEX Gold April contract may seek support around $ 1,218.83-1,208.95-1,201.95, while face resistance around $ 1,260.37-1,267.25-1,274.25.

Among the key momentum oscillators - the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence), the ADX (Average Directional Index) and the Stochastic Slow are all in favour of the bears on the daily charts. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), however, is in neutral mode.

Meanwhile, the MCX Gold April futures have gained 0.5 per cent at Rs. 26,950.

Sensex, Nifty Below 20-DMA

After declining nearly 3 per cent in the last five trading sessions, the BSE Sensex and the Nifty are down over a per cent each in trades so far today taking cues from the exit polls for the recently concluded Delhi polls.

Six out of seven exit polls from various media, have predicted a majority government by the AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) - Arvind Kejriwal. Narendra Modi-led Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) seems second in the race to Delhi.

The markets have been softening off late following the steep climb to record high levels, lower-than-expected corporate earnings and global worries. Kejriwal's likely victory in the Delhi polls followed by populist measures by the government could be the newer reasons for the markets to correct deeper into red.

The counting for the Delhi polls is scheduled for Tuesday. Till then, expect market to remain choppy.

The Sensex and the Nifty have broken the crucial near-term support at the 20-DMA (Daily Moving Average) so far in trades today and are currently hovering around 28,427 and 8,575, respectively.

In the case, the downward momentum continues, the key benchmark indices may continue the slide to test the next major support around the 50-DMA. The 50-DMA for the BSE Sensex is at 28,050-odd level, while support for the Nifty lies at 8,445.

Further, the Sensex has all dropped below the key quarterly Fibonacci level at 28,600-odd levels. This indicates that the BSE index may now drop to 28,140 or steeper down to 27,500-odd levels.